As you may or may not remember, Steve "PlayNoEvil" Davis and I have a small bet running at the princely sum of $1US (almost enough for a mug of coffee from the machine at work, in fact) concerning which console will sell the most by January 31st 2008.  Steve thinks Nintendo's Wii is a shoe-in.  I think the XBox 360 is far more likely to sell more units in total.  It looks good for Steve this month but i maintain that this makes no difference overall - the dollar shall be mine.

Why do I think that?  Various reasons.  First off, I like to back the cheater in any game and MS got a 10 million unit head-start on Nintendo which is going to be tough to crack.  Secondly,  I know a few people who bought a Wii last year and they're already pretty bored with it.  The WiiMote is a great idea and does that whole innovation thing nicely but the games just aren't there.  MS have the games.  We all thought Sony would also have the games (what with PS2/PS3 compatability) but they've decided that we should not be playing PS2 games and that we owe Sony money for being Sony, so frankly, fuck 'em.

Anyway, currently Nintendo don't have the games.

Thirdly, XBox Live, Vista Live and XBox Live Arcade.  Those are selling boxes, people. Oh yes.

Fourthly, XNA Framework.  Expect a rash of hobbyist games hitting XBLA by about September.  And quite a few very professional games, too.

And finally, more blatent cheating.  Oh sure, I agree with Steve that MS are bound to release an "xMote" or something by the end of the year.  And y'know, that'll sell even more XBox 360s.  Because MS have the games.  And the amateur game makers.  And the network.  And the delivery system.

Compared to all that, the Wii can be as Atari Lynx as it likes in terms of innovation and being "better".  It'll still end up extinct.